Syria At War

Eight Years On

INTRODUCTION

Almost a decade of conflict has radically transformed all aspects of Syrian society. The purpose of this report is to trace these transformations at social, economic and governance levels. It provides a framework for moving forward, proposing principles, priorities and pragmatic steps toward an inclusive and sustainable economic recovery and peacebuilding process.

Such an undertaking is of the utmost urgency. The human and social toll of the conflict has been devastating. Casualties number in the hundreds of thousands. The total number of involuntary internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees amount to almost 12 million, or half of the preconflict population. Those who have survived face an incredibly difficult daily reality. In 2019, more than 11.7 million people within Syrian Arab Republic were still in need of at least one form of humanitarian assistance, with 5 million of these in acute need. About 6.5 million were food insecure and an additional 2.5 million susceptible to becoming acutely food insecure. Widespread destruction of the educational and health infrastructure casts a shadow over current and future human development prospects, particularly for an entire generation of schoolage children.

1. Continuity and Transformation in the Syrian Conflict

Introduction

The conflict has resulted in a dramatic transformation at all levels of State and society. After several years of conflict involving Syrian and non-Syrian actors, the Syrian Arab Republic has exhibited many of the symptoms of State failure, including loss of monopoly over the use of violence, compromised territorial control and, in many areas, a complete breakdown of order.

Intervention by rival external States turned the conflict into a proxy war, the regular economy giving way to a war economy and whatever layers of civil society that did exist transformed to a conflict society. Losses in human development in education and health have been disastrous and, seemingly, irreversible, which has been particularly painful for the generation of Syrians who came of age at the time of the conflict.

2. Social Landscape

INTRODUCTION

The conflict continues to cause damage to social structures and the physical infrastructure, from disruptions in electricity or no safe water, to a lack of access to health care, education and decent employment. The country’s social fabric has been shattered, destroying the livelihoods and capabilities of many civilians, straining social ties and invigorating community intolerance. Syrian civilians have suffered the most. The proportion of civilian deaths has been high and rising while the bulk of survivors have either been internally displaced or sought asylum in neighbouring countries where the suffering continues among refugee communities.

3. The Macroeconomic Ramifications

INTRODUCTION

The conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic has been one of the most destructive since the Second World War. It has encompassed huge physical and social damage, infrastructure destruction and a massive refugee crisis. And severe economic downturn.

In this chapter, we turn to the economic consequences, and the Syrian macroeconomic indicators in particular. The diverse economic and fiscal costs are identified and measured using data from the Central Bureau of Statistics in Syria,105 Central Bank of Syria, ESCWA, National Agenda for the Future of Syria (NAFS) Programme estimations and calculations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) DataMapper and the International Trade Centre, among others, to compare data from before and after the conflict

4. Towards Inclusive and Sustainable Peacebuilding and Economic Recovery

INTRODUCTION

The scale of the conflict coupled with its geopolitical complexity implies recovery and reconstruction is of global importance, not just for Syrians in desperate need. Before the conflict, the Syrian Arab Republic was classified as a middle-income country but gains in development have been reversed. While the country was at 112 in global HDI rankings in 2012, it dropped to 154 in 2019.142 All socioeconomic indicators have significantly deteriorated. Each Syrian has been affected differently, but the conflict has negatively impacted on the lives of nearly all people and households.

The formation of the 150-member Constitutional Committee in September 2019, under terms agreed by the government and the Syrian Negotiation Committee, facilitated by the United Nations in Geneva, marked an important step towards a political solution. The committee is significant in that it entails both the government and the opposition recognizing the other as interlocutors in the political process.