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The Arab region may be missing the Fourth Industrial Revolution
Arab skills are still stuck in the past

Foreword


The Arab region continues to be one of the most unequal regions worldwide. As poverty rises, the growing wealth gap between individuals fuels increasing inequality. The region exhibits persistent and increasing levels of inequality in opportunity, especially among certain groups and in certain areas. For example, youth unemployment, which is 3.8 times higher than that of adult workers, has been the highest in the world for the past 25 years. Unemployment among certain groups, such as women and persons with disabilities, is even higher than that of men and persons without disabilities. Gender-based inequalities stubbornly remain above global levels. Wealth creation opportunities are declining, with the wealthiest 10 per cent of Arab adults holding 80 per cent of the total regional wealth. Such factors, if left unaddressed, will deepen existing inequalities, hitting the poorest and most vulnerable communities hardest. These factors risk inflaming greater disaffection and alienation among Arab populations, resulting in a breakdown of social cohesion.

Furthermore, social, political and economic inequalities have amplified the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disproportionately affected young people in the Arab region. The pandemic highlighted the economic inequalities and fragile social safety nets in the region, with vulnerable and at-risk communities bearing the brunt of the pandemic’s repercussions.

Despite this bleak picture, Arab populations are optimistic and hopeful. A survey conducted by ESCWA found that 52 per cent of people in the region believe that equality exists, either fully or partially, while 47 per cent believe that equality will increase in the next five years.

This optimism must be utilized.

To seize this momentum, Arab Governments should not spare an effort to capitalize on youth enthusiasm, which can serve as a strong catalyst for change. This requires going beyond superficial and temporary fixes to fundamentally reform the root causes of inequality, including addressing structural challenges, corruption, governance and institutional deficits, and introducing coordinated economic and social policies. Notably, creating job opportunities was chief among the demands of those surveyed. Decent job creation is necessary to unleash the productive potential of young people, and avoid another “lost generation” with limited access to opportunities as it transitions into the labour market.

Arab Governments must recognize that delivering visible impact, securing credibility, and promoting solidarity within the region constitute a successful three-pronged policy approach to reducing inequalities. Practical solutions should be put in place to translate this approach into practice, and ensure that benefits trickle down to those most in need.

To kickstart this paradigm shift in policy reform, I propose establishing a solidarity fund and a regional coalition to reconnect different population groups across the wealthiest and poorest segments of society, so as to create opportunities to ensure dignified and prosperous lives for the poor and vulnerable, improve shared wellbeing, guarantee growth to build stronger and more stable societies that leave no one behind in the achievement of the SDGs, and promote shared responsibilities, societal solidarity and effective partnerships for development.

We need to act now. Our children will never forgive us if the legacy they inherit is fragmented, fragile and marginalized societies.

Rola Dashti,
Executive Secretary
UNESCWA


Executive Summary

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Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, social protection systems in the Arab region were weak, fragmented, not inclusive and non-transparent. They were also costly and unsustainable. Underinvestment in these systems and exclusion of vulnerable populations were key challenges. Less than 30 per cent of the population in the Arab region were covered by social protection programmes.

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Most social protection systems were funded through Government budgets or external assistance and not through contributions from beneficiaries or employers. The COVID-19 crisis spotlighted the problems of the social contract between people and Governments and presented a historic opportunity to address some of the challenges facing social protection systems. Lessons learned in various countries were identified as useful examples for change, in addition to certain innovations.

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The Arab region witnessed a policy shift from targeting only the poorest population to also including the “missing middle”, such as informal workers who often did not receive any social protection benefits prior to the pandemic because they were not deemed eligible (for example Egypt, Jordan and Morocco). This shed light on the extent to which this group of workers was neglected pre-COVID-19 and the connected structural challenges.

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Arab countries excelled in using innovative technologies for the delivery of social protection programmes, especially cash transfers that were delivered to beneficiaries in just a few days through newly created outlets, e-wallets and digital registration. The unique constraints imposed by COVID-19 inspired innovations in the design and delivery of education, health and social protection, which not only protected access to services under extraordinarily challenging conditions, but also facilitated more inclusive outreach.

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In many Arab countries, the pandemic accelerated stronger partnerships and greater collaboration between different stakeholders. This was especially demonstrated, among others, through collaborations between different governmental parties at the national level, the sharing/using of databases of beneficiaries (civil registry, vital statistics, tax and social insurance database) and e-platforms such as Government-to-Government (G2G) sites in Egypt.

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Report team

Task manager

Mehrinaz Elawady

Director, ESCWA Cluster on Gender Justice, Population and Inclusive Development

Lead authors

Salim Araji

ESCWA

Sama El Hage Sleiman

ESCWA

Mohamad Nawar El Awa

ESCWA

Maguy Abdel Ahad

ESCWA

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Introduction

The world is currently experiencing the Fourth Industrial Revolution, where gaps and differences between the physical, biological and digital worlds are shrinking. It builds on the Third Industrial Revolution, with ICT as its cornerstone. However, the velocity of change and the increasing number of innovations during the Fourth Industrial Revolution are unprecedented. This revolution is making many jobs obsolete, while creating new sets of jobs.

The present report relies on a wealth of data collected by the ESCWA Skills Monitor, a dataand AI-driven tool built inhouse for the collection, processing and analysis of online job openings in the Arab region.The collection process, also referred to as data pipeline, is illustrated in figure 1.

Figure 1. Online job postings data collection process

1. Demanded skills and jobs

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Key messages

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Unlike global trends, the Arab region shows a large gap in technological adoption reflected in high demand for traditional skills in 1.7 million jobs. Business administration-related skills are the most demanded hard skills in Arab labour markets, while communication is the most demanded soft skill.

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Almost 55 per cent of Arab employees work in sectors that have low potential for remote work. Moreover, women are less likely to have the option of teleworking than men, and are mainly demanded in entry-level positions.

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The abrupt closure of several workplaces as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic did not accelerate the adoption of teleworking in the Arab region to match global trends.

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Based on a country pilot exercise, people in Lebanon accumulated only a small portion of the market’s demanded skills after being given the option to upskill without policy guidance.

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Overview


The new era of digital transformation demands a better understanding of the skills landscape in the Arab region. It is more important than ever to identify the most critical technical (hard) and human (soft) skills that employers are looking for; reveal the most in-demand skills for the future; and efficiently close skill gaps to successfully prepare those in the labour market for the future of work. Pinpointing the most sought-after and valued skills in the wide market and across particular sectors helps promote and build the skills necessary to propel businesses forward and reduce unemployment. Undoubtedly, workers must continually develop knowledge and skills to get their desired job or keep their job, especially those that are related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

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Current status of skills and jobs in the Arab region


In the present report, skills are split into two types: hard skills and soft skills. Hard skills can be defined as a worker’s technical knowledge, while soft skills are related to overall habits, personality traits and other interpersonal skills in the workplace.

Using the ESCWA Skills Monitor for the period June 2020 – March 2022, it is revealed that the largest number of online posted jobs in the Arab region are for professionals (33 per cent), followed by managers (21 per cent). Note that both of the aforementioned groups comprise occupations at the highest ISCO level (figure 2).

Figure 2. Percentage distribution of online job postings according to the International Standard Classification of Occupations



Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.


Figures 3 and 4 respectively illustrate the most in-demand soft and hard skills across the Arab region. Whereas hard skills are applicable to specific jobs, soft skills are applied not only to one specific job but also to everyday life. Figure 3 shows that communication skills are the most essential soft skills36 in the Arab labour market.


Figure 3. Top 10 demanded soft skills in the Arab region



Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.

Figure 4. Top 10 demanded hard skills in the Arab region



Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.
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New era of remote and hybrid work


The idea of remote work from outside the traditional office space has been increasingly embraced over the past couple of years. This modality has been supported by advancements in Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies and trends, powered by improved communication technologies, digitalization, and augmented or virtual realities. The pandemic has accelerated the work-from-home transition, and acted as a catalyst to a long-overdue shift in work modalities worldwide.

Figures 5 and 6 set out the top 10 demanded office jobs and the top 10 demanded remote jobs advertised online in the Arab region between June 2020 and March 2022. The ESCWA Skills Monitor indicated that ICT system developers, sales account managers, and software developers were among the top professions providing telework.

Figure 5. Top 10 demanded office jobs advertised online

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Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.

Figure 6. Top 10 demanded remote jobs advertised online

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Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.
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E-accessibility and remote working for persons with disabilities


Remote working could unlock more employment opportunities for persons with disabilities. The global disability movement has long advocated for online and remote working arrangements, which would provide many job seekers with disabilities the opportunity to work from home rather than face transport and workplace barriers.

Furthermore, in the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, automation and advanced technology, e-accessibility and digital inclusion should be at the centre of the digital transformation.

E-accessibility refers to the ease of use of ICTs, such as the Internet and online services, by persons with disabilities, and is based on the principle that websites should be developed so that all users can access the information. To promote e-accessibility, websites, tools, digital equipment, applications, web-based government services and digital content must be designed and developed so that people with disabilities, of all ages, can use them. More specifically, individuals with disabilities must be able to perceive, understand, navigate and interact with the web; and contribute to digital content and online applications.

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Skills misinformation: evidence from Lebanon


Based on PISA and TIMSS international examination results, the Arab region showed poor education quality and the irrelevance of training programmes that do not match labour market needs. This may be driven by a lack of public guidance and private sector involvement in the design of quality training and education curriculums, and weak information sharing between employers and potential employees. According to the World Bank Enterprise Survey, around 40 per cent of firm owners claim that in the Arab region, the inadequately educated workforce is a big obstacle to firm owners.



Box 1. Case of Lebanon: a non-balanced reskilling and upskilling approach

Reskilling and upskilling guidance in the Arab region has an important role to play, given the large gap between attained skills and those required in the job market. To estimate this gap, ESCWA piloted a field study in partnership with the Lebanese Ministry of Labor, and launched an initiative which offered unique free-of-charge and certified learning opportunities on the e-learning platform Coursera. This initiative provided Lebanese citizens with the chance to choose from over 3,000 online training courses. A total of 39,792 applicants registered, and 25,000 completed 44,377 courses of their choice (equivalent to 549,517 learning hours), thus accumulating various types of skills in multiple domains.

Employment status of Coursera applicants age bracket

Source: ESCWA calculations.
Unemployed Coursera applicants by age

Source: ESCWA calculations.
Unemployed Coursera applicants by gender

Source: ESCWA calculations.
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Policy recommendations


The following policy recommendations highlight key initiatives that could promote regional technological adoption and adaptation:

  • 1.

    Benefit from opportunities created by the Fourth Industrial Revolution and keep pace with the rest of the world by structurally transforming Arab economies towards more technological diffusion. Productive jobs require productive firms and vice versa. This can be done by building the right infrastructure for non-traditional sectors, such as the digital economy.

  • 2.

    Encourage Arab Governments to guide the nationwide skill sets by reducing labour market information gaps by building labour market information systems and creating the right upskilling/reskilling/TVET programmes based on ESCWA Skills Monitor recommendations.

  • 3.

    Build the connection between private sector research and development investments and educational research entities for better technological adaptation, adoption and innovation. This could be done through partnerships, joint research and additional research and development spending in countries with adequate research and development enabling environment, such as GCC countries.

  • 4.

    Promote teleworking as a booster for female employment to integrate more women into the labour force, and to reduce female unemployment which is a major issue in the Arab region. This is most relevant in countries where political instability and traditional cultural norms are key issues impeding female employment. Remote working can be used as a tool to reduce female unemployment and increase their economic empowerment.

2. Gender equality, inclusion and sustainability

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Key messages

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While many jobs target both women and men, many other occupations are gender exclusive.

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Many job advertisements explicitly or implicitly target a specific gender for a job opening. However, the needed skills in these job advertisements are gender neutral by definition.

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Most in-demand female-targeted jobs are in entry-level jobs, while the lowest share of jobs targeting women are in management and senior-level positions, even though more senior jobs have more flexible work modalities.

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Job openings in the Arab region are inclusive of and accessible to persons with disabilities; however, no job openings target persons with disability. Moreover, there is no evidence that most jobs can accommodate persons with disabilities.

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Communications and accounting are the most demanded skills at any career level, while project management, quality control, planning, and leadership are only demanded at mid and senior career levels.

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Overview


The gender gap is still significant in all Arab countries, where access to jobs, finance and land, and asset ownership remain low for women compared with other regions worldwide. Youth unemployment is also high, with the Arab region recording the highest level of unemployment among female youth globally. Regarding persons with disabilities, although the region has advanced significantly in promoting better access to job hubs, it still faces challenges related to incorporating people with disabilities and accommodating them in decent jobs.

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Gender inclusion


Disruptive changes in the workplace brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution have delivered mixed signals. It is still unclear whether new work modalities worsen, reduce or sustain existing gendered inequalities. In the Arab region, many economic opportunities have been created for Arab women; however, unemployment is still significantly high and gender bias in employment (and economic participation in general) remains widespread. The unemployment rate among Arab women was 20 per cent in 2019 compared with only 7.8 per cent among Arab men. Female youth unemployment in the Arab region is the highest worldwide.

Figure 7 shows the top five online advertised jobs in the region (sales manager, Sales account manager, marketing manager, project manager and human resources officer) also reveal the preference for men in their job recruiting advertisements. This is alarming as it does not only affect those who apply, but also those who get hired. Such a screening process factions jobs based on gender, and entrenches the gender-biased cultural and social norms that have prevailed in the region for decades.

Figure 7. Gender bias in the top five occupations advertised online in the Arab region



Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.


The different skills deployed by men and women in the workplace are influenced by the jobs they tend to occupy. As stated previously, in today’s business world, the most sought-after skills are soft skills. Women are more often present in occupations requiring high social skills. They flourish in such jobs as most of these soft skills come naturally to women, compared with men who are usually more concentrated in occupations that require more mechanical skills. This could be one of the reasons why women have an edge over men in jobs related to health care, education, administrative support, and sales. However, our findings (figure 8) indicate that the Arab job market demands soft and hard skills almost equally from both men and women. The ratio of demanded soft skills to demanded hard skills is 63 per cent for men and 61 per cent for women. This implies that women are no longer more likely than men to work in jobs that require a high degree of proficiency in soft skills only.


Figure 8. Top 10 demanded hard and soft skills for female jobs vs. male jobs


Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.
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Youth and career progress


Many jobs for new job market entrants have been created in the past year. Figure 9 shows that in the Arab region, around 52 per cent of online job openings that state years of experience are entry-level jobs, while only 12 per cent are senior-level positions. However, the issue is whether enough jobs are created to fit Arab demographic changes, especially for those newly entering the job market.

Figure 9. Career-level distribution of online job openings in the Arab region



Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.


Figure 10 shows that from the jobs that mention the type of work modality, only 23 per cent of entry-level positions in these jobs are remote, compared with 40 per cent of senior-level vacancies for jobs that posted work modality requirements. Employers usually provide relative freedom and flexibility for older workers to work from anywhere.


Figure 10. Work modality distribution by career level in online job openings



Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.
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Arab jobs and their links to the Sustainable Development Goals


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As Arab Governments joined the global community in their commitment to the 2030 Agenda, structural issues and institutional and governance deficits have negatively impacted the region’s ability to achieve the SDGs by 2030. Political conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic have placed additional obstacles to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda. Consequently, SDG 8 requires additional focus in the Arab region, where decent work and full and productive employment for all men and women should be considered a priority.

The results revealed that advertised jobs target all SDGs; however, such targeting was disproportionate reflecting distinct private-sector priorities compared with regional ones. Figure 11 shows that SDG 11 is the most referenced SDG, with 38.17 per cent of collected online job openings containing keywords that can be attributed to sustainable cities and communities. This is followed by SDGs 4, 10 and 3.

Figure 11. Percentage of online job openings targeting each each Sustainable Development Goal in the Arab region
img Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.
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Policy recommendations


The following recommendations provide policymakers with options for additional inclusiveness in the demand for jobs:

  • 1.

    Enforce laws that enhance gender equality in job applications and in recruitment to enhance equal opportunity and representation in employment. Lobbying legislators, gender committees and international organizations could be effective, and enhancing gender equality may ultimately improve productivity, competitiveness, and overall economic performance.

  • 2.

    Provide teleworking as an option to all seniority levels to create additional flexibility for employees, especially women. This can be done by equipping staff with the right tools for different work modalities, and providing the needed training. Employers’ tax subsidies, tariff reductions on needed equipment, and infrastructure incentives can play a crucial role in facilitating telework.

  • 3.

    Incorporate additional e-accessibility features for persons with disabilities within job hubs, such as ensuring a text-to-speech function and adjusting the colour contrast and font size of job descriptions. This can be ensured by following the WCAG e-accessibility standards in the design of websites, digital platforms and mobile applications to lessen the risk of alienating a large candidate pool in the job market.

3. The future of jobs and skills

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Key messages

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Accounting and restaurant operation skills remain the highest in demand, with an increasing trend.

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Several ICT skills with decreasing trends are being replaced by other upward trending ICT skills in the same sector.

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The average AI scoring for the region is around 36 per cent, indicating a low level of AI augmentation. The highest AI augmentation score is among data scientist positions, with around 50 per cent of tasks AI-augmented.

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Out of 15,500 different skills across the region, around one third (5,100 skills) account for more than 95 per cent of the total frequencies of demanded skills.

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The Arab region has a core cluster in business administration-related jobs, and is not heavily diversified in science-related jobs such as IT, manufacturing/industry, engineering and innovation, which calls for further structural transformation and greater technology adaptation and adoption.

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Overview


The present chapter examines positively and negatively trending skills, focusing solely on hard skills trends as they have the upper hand in determining the match between applicants’ profiles and job requirements. Soft skills trends are less imperative determinants in the job matching process, meaning that such skills do not vary significantly over time. Based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor, soft skills are stationary in the Arab region, with limited trends over time.

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Skills with most ascending, descending and stable trends


For an overview of the upward trending skills, the top 10 steeper trends were related to accounting, restaurant operation, finance, computer science, invoicing, selling techniques, key performance indicators (KPIs), Kurdish (language), financial statements, and sales management (figure 12). Most upward trending skills were related to accounting and finance (accounting, finance, invoicing, financial statements) and to services and sales (restaurant operation, sales management, selling techniques, KPIs). It is worth mentioning that computer science-related skills ranked fourth in the upward trending skills.

Figure 12. Ascending (left) and descending (right) trends of hard skills in the Arab region

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Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.
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Status of artificial intelligence in Arab labour market activities


AI is a new approach where automated machines are fed or taught human logic, based on which they act and react without errors. Recently, AI has been making verbal communication with devices a norm, with AI augmenting many daily activities and occupations. This was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, where many jobs drifted to more advanced AI-driven systems, thus requiring a change in the way of executing job-specific tasks.

The AI scores presented in figures 13 and 14 reflects the percentage of skills in jobs that can be automated with AI augmentation using current technologies, or those that have been patented. In other words, to perform a job with a high AI Score in the future, the job will likely be using technology extensions to facilitate the tasks.

Figure 13. Most 10 AI-augmented jobs in the Arab region


Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.

Figure 14. Least 10 AI-augmented jobs in the Arab region


Source: ESCWA calculations based on the ESCWA Skills Monitor.


Box 2. Future technologies and the status of their adoption in the Arab region

To assess the readiness of the Arab region to adopt and absorb new technologies, the following five dimensions are examined: AI, innovation ecosystems, public services, network readiness, and e-commerce.

Comparative tabulation of technology adoption by index
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Source: ESCWA calculations.
Note: AI-2020 denotes the latest AI Government Readiness Index 2020, GII-2021 denotes the Global Innovation Index, e-GDI-2020 denotes the e-Government Development Index 2020, NRI-2020 denotes the Network Readiness Index 2020, and e-commerce-2020 denotes the UNCTAD B2C E-Commerce Index 2020.
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Policy recommendations


  • 1.

    Enhance technological infrastructure, facilitate human capital accumulation, digitize government services, and assist in the AI augmentation of tasks to enhance productivity and create additional employment. Additional technological adoption can create more jobs and increase wages due to higher productivity.

  • 2.

    To avoid labour substitution (full automation of activities), investigate jobs that are at risk of full automation, and develop appropriate reskilling and upskilling programmes as an attempt to prepare employees at risk to move to jobs with close proximities. This can be done using the ESCWA Skills Forest by investigating jobs and their associated skills.

  • 3.

    Extend diversification and structural transformation efforts to create multiple cores in the Skills Forest as a plan for long term sustainable economic development. Building infrastructure for digital economies can help keep pace with the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

4. Prioritizing human centred policies

  1. Our data shows that in the Arab region, the links between currently demanded skills and those related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution are still weak. Nonetheless, smart technologies may soon take over traditional jobs, making many skills obsolete while creating others.
  2. Since individuals can lose their human capital over time, upskilling and reskilling programmes can refresh human capital knowledge, and increase employability for everybody, especially older employees that have a higher chance of not finding a job after being laid off. To do so, education subsidies and financial assistance for training programme must be provided and boosted further to include women, persons with disabilities, and those in rural areas.
  3. Developing an integrated approach and coordinating efforts to improve access to good quality and relevant training to those residing in deprived areas is not only central for skills development, but is also a passport to better employment and livelihood opportunities.
  4. Establishing coherence between the demand and supply of occupational skills can be achieved by developing coordination mechanisms between education providers and companies.
  5. In the current era of integration at the regional and global levels, focusing on skills that could be demanded domestically, regionally and globally will increase the employability spectrum.

Full report, Annexes, Endnotes